The Promise and the Pressure Behind Carbon Dioxide Removal

In the urgent race to reach net-zero emissions, CDR has gone from a fringe concept to a climate imperative. Global institutions, from the IPCC to the UNFCCC, now agree: it’s not enough to reduce emissions, we also need to remove them.

From Direct Air Capture (DAC) machines that pull CO₂ straight from the air, to biochar production that locks carbon in soil, a new class of novel CDR technologies is emerging. Projections suggest the carbon removal market could be worth $50 billion by 2030, growing more than 1,000x by 2040.

But behind the momentum lies a pressing question: Do these technologies truly deliver on their carbon removal claims?

That’s where LCA comes in.

What Life Cycle Assessment Is and Why It Matters

LCA is a rigorous, science-based methodology that evaluates the environmental impacts of a product, process, or system across its entire life cycle—from raw material extraction to end-of-life.

In the world of CDR, LCA helps answer one essential question:

Does this process remove more CO₂ than it emits?

That may sound obvious, but it’s deceptively complex. Carbon removal technologies can be energy-intensive, resource-heavy, and operationally diverse. Without a robust LCA, it’s impossible to quantify the solution’s net environmental benefit, which may risk greenwashing by omission.

The Stakes: Carbon Markets, Net Zero, and Public Trust

The carbon credit market has taken some hits in recent years. Reports of overstated credits and unverifiable removals have made investors and buyers cautious. As new CDR technologies enter the scene, credibility is non-negotiable.

An LCA doesn’t just provide data, it builds trust.

• Investors want to know their capital is backing genuinely impactful solutions.
• Buyers of carbon credits need guarantees that removals are real and permanent.
• Policy makers are building certification schemes that depend on verifiable impact.

With emerging EU frameworks for carbon removal certification and buyers’ coalitions like Frontier raising the bar for transparency, LCA is quickly becoming the backbone of compliance and quality assurance. The European battery sector is paving the way for LCA integration with sustainability standards, via regulatory development.

LCA in Action: A Real-World Example

Let’s take Direct Air Capture (DAC) as a quick example to explore with an LCA lens.

Imagine a startup builds a DAC unit that captures 1 tonne of CO₂ per day. That’s the headline claim. But running the fans, regenerating the sorbents, building the steel structure. Those all require energy and materials. If the plant uses grid electricity from fossil sources, its own Scope 2 emissions alone could cancel out much of the carbon footprint benefit.

An LCA shows the full picture. In a recent industry-leading study, DAC systems powered fully by renewable energy achieved up to 90% net CO₂ removal efficiency. With fossil power? That figure can drop dramatically, given that every kWh consumed can carry ten or even a hundred times more CO₂ than hydro, solar or wind, depending on the fuel types.

In addition to CO₂ capture, other important factors may influence the feasibility of DAC systems, particularly the land required for their construction and operation, which can have indirect environmental implications. LCA provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating multiple impact categories. As CDR technologies scale up, these broader environmental impacts will likely face increasing scrutiny.

LCA identifies hotspots, enabling better decisions in energy sourcing, material selection, and system design. Without it, the climate and by extension environmental maths just doesn’t add up.

Why Novel CDR Tech Needs LCA From Day One

Unlike conventional removals like afforestation, novel CDR methods, such as enhanced weathering, biochar, and mineralisation, are often built on new infrastructure and experimental processes. That makes them:

• Harder to standardise
• More scrutinised by regulators
• More exposed to reputational risk

LCA provides:

• A credible, ISO-aligned approach to quantify of carbon performance, for any developing process
• An option to align with existing Product Category Rules (PCRs) and conduct an Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs)
• A defensible basis for carbon credit issuance and MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification)

In short, if you’re developing a novel carbon removal technology or project, LCA isn’t just a nice-to-have, it’s a strategic imperative.

How Minviro Can Support CDR Innovators with LCA

At Minviro, we specialise in applying LCA to emerging technologies. From batteries and hydrogen to mineral extraction and now carbon removal, we bring a deep, technical understanding of system boundaries, impact categories, and scalable modelling.

For CDR developers and project teams, we offer:

• Feasibility LCAs: Quick-turnaround assessments to evaluate impact at early stages, ensuring maximum flexibility in sustainable development
• Full ISO-aligned LCAs: Detailed modelling with comparison scenarios and a range of impact categories beyond just carbon footprint
• Support for Puro.earth, EPDs and other standards: Ensure your solution meets buyer and regulatory expectations
• Integration with XYCLE, our proprietary LCA automation tool, for scalable insights as your solution grows

Whether you’re preparing for investment, building out an MRV strategy, or applying for certification, we’re here to make sure your claims are defensible, verifiable, and future-proof.

If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Sell It

In today’s climate economy, it’s no longer enough to promise carbon removal, you have to prove it.

And the proof is in the data. LCA is the gold standard for quantifying environmental impact, guiding better design, and fostering trust from stakeholders.

As the carbon removal market matures, the winners won’t just be the loudest or the fastest, they’ll be the most credible.

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