IN SUMMARY
Demand for battery raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt is projected to rise 15 to 20 times between 2020 and 2050, raising hard questions about supply security and end-of-life waste. A circular economy, through reuse, remanufacturing and recycling, is widely seen as part of the answer. To test how much it can deliver and when, Minviro combined System Dynamics modelling with prospective life cycle assessment, using the UK as a case study to map material recovery and battery carbon footprints from 2020 to 2050.
Early policy doubles recovery. Adopting the EU battery collection targets in the UK closely tracks the maximum material-recovery scenario, and early investment in collection infrastructure can double material recovered from waste batteries within a decade.
Recycling alone will not decarbonise batteries. Grid decarbonisation and recycling credits help, but deep decarbonisation requires addressing the primary raw material supply chains where most of a battery’s impact sits.
Chemistry and efficiency shape circularity. Higher specific-energy batteries perform better environmentally, NCX chemistries carry large recycling credits from nickel and cobalt recovery, and current hydrometallurgical recycling of LFP can produce a higher net impact than the credits it earns.
Why circularity matters for battery materials
The shift to electric vehicles has driven demand for lithium-ion batteries toward an expected 4.7 TWh by 2030, and with it demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite. Producing these materials carries real environmental and social cost: in Minviro’s NMC811 work, around half the carbon footprint comes from cathode active material production, with nickel sulfate alone able to account for more than half of that. Primary production also carries social risks, such as the cobalt mining concerns in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A circular economy that recovers and reuses materials from spent batteries can reduce reliance on virgin sources, improve supply security and help supply conflict-free materials, which is why regulators are increasingly pushing for it.
How the study was built
Rather than a single snapshot, this study models change over time. Minviro built a System Dynamics model in AnyLogic covering UK EV and battery flows from 2020 to 2050, structured around battery manufacturing and first life, second-life options, and hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical recycling. This was integrated with a prospective LCA using Brightway2 and the IMAGE SSP2-RCP2.6 scenario, so that future grid and supply chain changes are reflected in the impact results. The model distinguishes battery chemistries, including the NMC family, NCA and LFP, and tracks circular interventions across three levels: narrowing, slowing and closing the resource loop. Six scenarios were run, varying collection rates and second-life strategies.